Against the backdrop of the current confrontation between Russia and Azerbaijan, which is gradually spilling over into the economic sphere, the development of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) is becoming ever more relevant.

In a recent presentation in Istanbul, Nightingale Intelligence co-founders Daniel Longerich and Eldaniz Gusseinov explored how the OTS is likely to evolve by 2040 and identified the factors that will shape that trajectory.

At the outset of the presentation we outlined four key findings:

1. There is a clear link between the external environment and OTS activities.

2. The areas with the greatest potential for deeper cooperation up to 2040 are:

– Institutionalising meetings of the Heads of National Security Councils;

– Concluding a Digital Economy Partnership Agreement;

– Developing a “Corridor Digital Twin.”

3. If current trends continue, the OTS will serve chiefly as a platform for shaping specialised niches, because the legal frameworks of other organisations to which Turkic states belong constrain the OTS’s own scope of action.

4. A potential opportunity lies in the emergence of new issues such as water security. Overall, however, the OTS is positioning itself as a structure that forges common spaces in culture, transport, and the digital organisation of transit.

A “Black Box” Model of the OTS Secretariat

We viewed the OTS Secretariat as a black box: it absorbs external demands and aspirations and outputs results in the form of leaders’ summits, whose final documents are the OTS declarations. By analysing every declaration issued after each summit, we concluded that there is a direct correlation between global developments and the topics that rise to prominence within the OTS over time.

2011–2012: Cooperation on security topped the agenda in response to the Arab Spring.

From 2014 onward: Transport cooperation surged in importance after Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled the Belt and Road Initiative in Astana in 2013.

We illustrated these shifts with a visualisation of the most frequently mentioned words in each year’s declaration. A particularly telling development was the adoption, after many years, of legally binding documents specifically in the transport sector once the war in Ukraine began and the Middle Corridor crossing OTS territory became a strategic priority.

Trends Shaping the OTS to 2040

In our report we noted that the following megatrends will continue to influence the organisation up to 2040:

– Growing interest in nuclear energy in Central Asia;

– The scramble among great powers for resources;

– The advance of Chinese security initiatives;

– Intensifying competition over transport-corridor development.

The report concluded with three development scenarios, which we will elaborate on in greater detail on our website.

See the full video here.