Central Asia Must Force China and the West to Compete for Its Favor

Eldaniz Gusseinov, Head of the Research Department at Nightingale Int., has authored an article for the Representative Office of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation in Central Asia titled “Central Asia Must Force China and the West to Compete for Its Favor.”

Gusseinov believes that, for the first time, Central Asian countries can transform their resource dependency into a strategic asset, transitioning from passive raw material suppliers to active subjects of international politics. While the region’s integration into the global economy in the 1990s was narrow, resource-based, and only reinforced structural vulnerabilities, the current demand for rare metals provides an opportunity for a qualitative reset of this model.

The article can be summarized into three key conclusions:

1. Competition is not merely about gaining access to resources or increasing imports from Central Asia, but about a strategy of “containment.” If the European Union and the U.S. can expand resource imports from Central Asia via the Middle Corridor or Trans-Afghan routes, it reduces China’s real influence over the West. On the other hand, this forces China to seek more secure resource sources for its own economy amidst instability surrounding strategic routes and suppliers like Pakistan and Iran. Against this backdrop, Xi Jinping’s speech at the 2025 “China-Central Asia” summit placed a much clearer emphasis on security issues than in 2023.
2. Western resource diplomacy in Central Asia is intensifying in anticipation of a new round of Chinese export restrictions on rare earth metals. This is driving the EU and the U.S. to urgently seek alternative suppliers in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to secure their “green transition.”However, at present, the West’s position in the region remains significantly weaker than China’s: Beijing is implementing over 20 mining projects compared to just five by the EU. Export statistics confirm the region’s near-total integration into the Chinese market, which receives the vast majority of rare earth compounds and ores (China’s procurement volume rose to $4.2 billion by 2024).Despite the emergence of new trade directions, such as Kazakh molybdenum exports to Belgium or tantalum supplies to the U.S., the region’s overall commodity orientation toward China remains unchanged for now. This creates a “calm before the storm,” where Western initiatives possess potential but do not yet have the real power to shift the geoeconomic balance.
3. The Western strategy in Central Asia, focused on implementing ESG standards and creating full value chains, may inspire China to adapt its own approaches. This includes ramping up “green” rhetoric and updating legislation, as evidenced by the new Chinese Law on Mineral Resources entering into force in 2025.Targeted but strategically important investments by the EU and Germany in Kazakh graphite and lithium projects offer an alternative to the Chinese model of vertical integration, represented by massive clusters like the East Hope Group.This rivalry provides regional countries with the opportunity to use geoeconomic pressure as leverage to import high technologies and implement environmentally responsible mining methods, turning great-power competition into a tool for qualitative industrial modernization.

At the conclusion of his work, Gusseinov analyzes the experiences of Indonesia, Morocco, and Mongolia to provide specific recommendations for Central Asian countries.

Read the full article on the website of the Representative Office of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation in Central Asia: Central Asia Must Force China and the West to Compete for Its Favor