Nightingale Analysts Weigh in on Black Sea Drone Strikes and Central Asian Energy Security

We are pleased to announce that two of our experts, Eldaniz Gusseinov and Vlad Paddack, have been featured in a new report by Nikkei Asia regarding the escalating risks to Central Asian energy infrastructure.

The article, titled “Kazakhstan oil economy hit by Ukraine drone strike on Russian assets” and authored by Yevgeniya Mikhailidi, investigates the severe economic repercussions of the November 29 Ukrainian naval drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk.

With roughly 80% of Kazakh crude relying on this terminal, the attack has highlighted the acute vulnerability of Kazakhstan’s energy-dependent economy.

Eldaniz Gusseinov, Head of Research at Nightingale Int., provided insight into the challenges of diversifying export routes. He highlighted the technical and economic limitations of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, noting that the sulfur-rich nature of Kazakh crude drags down the value of the high-quality Azeri blend if injected in large volumes.

“If Kazakhstan sends more than 2.2 million tons, the quality of the Azeri blend worsens, lowering Azerbaijan’s oil export income,” Gusseinov told Nikkei Asia, adding that alternative routes like BTC and Baku-Supsa may only be able to transport up to 10% of Kazakh crude by 2050.

Vlad Paddack, a Fellow at Nightingale Int., offered an assessment of the repair timelines for the damaged infrastructure. He cautioned that the disruption to the CPC, the main artery for Kazakhstan’s economy, could be prolonged.

“Even under optimistic timelines, the full three-SPM system will not be restored before summer to autumn 2026,” Paddack stated.

The inclusion of our analysts in Nikkei Asia underscores Nightingale’s commitment to providing leading expertise on geopolitical risk and energy security in Eurasia.

Read the full article at Nikkei Asia here.